Russian President Vladimir Putin made it abundantly clear on Monday that the substantial grain export agreement, enabling Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea for secure exports amid the ongoing conflict, would not be reinstated until the Western powers address Moscow’s concerns regarding their agricultural exports. Putin’s declaration has cast a pall over the optimism surrounding his talks with Turkish President Recap Tayyip Erdogan, aimed at revitalizing this critical agreement, vital for global food supplies, especially in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Russia’s initial refusal to extend the agreement in July was based on claims that a parallel accord, promising the removal of barriers to Russian food and fertilizer exports, had not been honored by the West. Russia contended that shipping and insurance restrictions were impeding its agricultural trade, despite having achieved record wheat shipments in the previous year.
During his announcement on Monday, Putin reiterated these grievances but also emphasized that if the Western nations fulfill their commitments, Russia could swiftly return to the grain agreement.
Erdogan expressed optimism regarding the potential for a breakthrough, indicating that Turkey and the United Nations, both of which mediated the original agreement, have formulated fresh proposals to resolve the impasse. During a joint press conference held with Putin in the Russian resort of Sochi, Erdogan stated, “We are confident that we will reach a solution that meets expectations in a short timeframe.”
Nevertheless, earlier in Berlin, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized Putin’s actions, characterizing his stance on the grain agreement as cynical. She asserted, “Putin alone is responsible for the lack of unrestricted passage for cargo ships.”
The stakes in these negotiations are significant, given that Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of essential commodities such as wheat, barley, and sunflower oil, upon which many developing nations rely. Data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, responsible for overseeing shipments under the agreement, revealed that 57% of Ukraine’s grain exports were destined for developing nations, with China standing out as the largest recipient.
While grain prices experienced a surge when Russia initially withdrew from the deal, they have since receded, indicating temporary stability in the market. Nevertheless, if the agreement remains in limbo, it could have “far-reaching consequences” in countries like Somalia and Egypt, heavily reliant on Black Sea grain, warned Gaelip Delay, an associate fellow affiliated with the Chatham House research institute in London.
Delay suggested that Putin is pursuing relief from sanctions while simultaneously engaging in a “war of narratives” to avoid being perceived as the instigator of global food insecurity in the eyes of the global south. Ukraine and its allies have consistently pointed out that Russia’s actions have left many developing nations grappling with the repercussions of disrupted grain supplies.
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